The OECD has lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.8%

 The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its latest economic outlook report on June 3, 2026, lowering its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.8%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the prediction made in March this year.

Core fact: OECD cuts global economic growth forecast for 2026.

1. Latest forecast data

Growth rate expectation for 2026: 2.8%, a downward adjustment of 0.1 percentage points from the March forecast of 2.9%.

Growth rate expectation for 2027: expected to rebound to 3.1%, an upward adjustment of 0.1 percentage points from the March forecast of 3.0%.

Growth rate for 2025: 3.4%, serving as a benchmark for comparison.

2. Background of report release

Issuing body: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), an intergovernmental international economic organization composed of 38 market economy countries.

Issuing date: June 3, 2026.

Report nature: The latest issue of "OECD Economic Outlook".

3. Pessimistic scenario (situation of ongoing conflict)

If the energy supply disruptions caused by conflicts in the Middle East persist until 2027, global economic growth will slow down significantly:

growth rate in 2026: down to 2.1%.

growth rate in 2027: down to 1.8%.

Some economies may fall into or approach recession, and unemployment rates will also rise.

G20 inflation will increase by about 0.4 percentage points in 2026 and by about 1.3 percentage points in 2027.

Direct cause: Conflicts in the Middle East and disruptions in energy supply.

1. Core drag factor: geopolitical conflicts. Conflicts in the Middle East disrupt energy transportation and supply, driving up energy and key industrial input prices.

Inflationary pressures intensify: rising energy prices exacerbate global inflationary pressures.

Market confidence is undermined: conflicts weaken market confidence, dragging down household consumption and corporate activities.

2. Short-term positive factors: At the beginning of 2026, investment in the field of artificial intelligence was robust, financial conditions were relatively loose, trade tensions eased, and the global economy had a better-than-expected start to the year.
3. Policy Recommendations

The OECD has put forward the following suggestions in the report:

Short-term Response: Strengthen coordination of strategic energy reserves, implement temporary demand restraint measures, and alleviate energy supply tension. Medium- and Long-term Measures: Promote diversification of energy supply, improve energy utilization efficiency, and enhance supply chain resilience.

Central Bank Policy: Ensure inflation expectations are anchored, and strike a balance between curbing inflation and avoiding excessive harm to growth.

Fiscal Measures: Support targeted and temporary policies to avoid increasing the burden of public debt.